Zero Risk Bias: The Irrational Love for Certainty
Imagine you are in charge of cleaning up two toxic waste sites. Site A causes 8 cancer cases per year. Site B causes 4. You have the budget to do one of two things. Reduce Site A to 4 cases (saving 4 lives) or reduce Site B to 0 cases (saving 4 lives). Mathematically the benefit is identical. You save 4 lives. Yet when asked people overwhelmingly choose to clean up Site B.
Why? Because Option 2 offers Zero Risk. It eliminates the problem entirely. Option 1 leaves a residual risk. The brain hates the 8 to 4 reduction. It feels incomplete. The 4 to 0 reduction feels like a victory. This is Zero Risk Bias. We value the complete elimination of a small risk far more than the massive reduction of a large risk. We crave the feeling of 100 percent safe even if it is mathematically inefficient.
Why is zero the most seductive number?
The complete elimination of a threat removes the cognitive burden of monitoring it which feels disproportionately valuable.
We have a finite amount of worry budget. If a risk is reduced from 10 percent to 1 percent we still have to worry about it. It still occupies a slot in our RAM. If a risk is reduced to 0 percent we can close that file completely. That mental closure feels incredibly good. This is why we buy warranties that make no financial sense. We aren't buying repair coverage. We are buying the peace of mind that comes from not having to think about the risk anymore.
How does the Guarantee grease the slide to purchase?
It artificially removes the financial risk from the equation so the customer feels safe to buy.
When a customer looks at a product they calculate risk. They ask what if it doesn't work. If you say this works 99 percent of the time that 1 percent gnaws at them. If you say 100 percent Satisfaction or your money back you create a Zero Risk scenario. The risk hasn't actually vanished as they still have to return the item but the financial risk has been zeroed out.
Free is another form of Zero Risk. People will choose a free 1 dollar chocolate over a 5 dollar chocolate discounted to 10 cents. The 10 cents implies a risk of a bad trade. Free implies you cannot lose.
How can you sell certainty in an uncertain world?
You must use social proof and pilot programs to simulate a zero risk environment for the buyer.
If you are selling a risky product like innovation or consulting you must manufacture certainty. You cannot eliminate the future risk but you can eliminate the perceived risk. Don't ask for a 12 month contract. Ask for a 30 day paid pilot. The risk of a 12 month failure is terrifying. The risk of a 30 day failure is zero in the grand scheme of a budget.
Use testimonials as safety nets. Nobody got fired for buying IBM. When you show logos of other companies you are saying these smart people survived. The risk is zero. We are not gamblers. We are risk minimizers. We sacrifice upside for safety. Unless you can get that risk counter to Zero the customer will always hesitate.
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